NOAA/CPC 6-10 day outlook

Although I have retired from WSB, I will from time to time blog and TWEET (@MellishMeterWSB) about the weather when I have time and something of interest gets my attention.

It was weeks ago that I mentioned the signs of more interesting, less warm and winter precip potential as we got into the new month. Other forecasters finally joined me and came aboard recently.

Old Man Winter is far from done with the country yet, despite more up and down spells including above-normal temp periods. Cold snaps will come and go, go and come back.

Yet the models are still signaling that mid to late this month could get interesting a time or two in the South and East as many of the models, especially the ECMWF show a turn from a +AO,+NAO, to a -AO, -NAO -EPO and +PNA that could lead to another significant East Coast snowstorm or multiple storm systems, one of which could eventually impact more the AL/GA/SC than the last “brush with winter” system. But nothing in sight yet.

The type pattern projected is the only way to get “cross-polar” air flow and actual arctic air deeper into the U.S.

GFS operational model polar air core forecast

It’s far enough in the future though that all we can say now is that the overall jet stream flow pattern is projected to become increasingly favorable for a chance of winter precip in 10 days or so.

However, I won’t get too excited unless or until models show this kind of pattern for multiple runs on multiple consecutive days, that is usually an indicator that there is something to it beyond a single model hiccup.

Later on as we move further into February it looks like next month will average warmer than normal.

240hour ECMWF Ensemble 500mb jet stream

ECMWF 500mb 240 hour deterministic model

North American Ensemble model temps Jan 13-20

GFS model Extended run 500mb ensemble jet pattern

Global model suite Jan 21-22

GFS Extended ensemble mean 500mb jet pattern forecast

Stay in touch on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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