The recent round of Q1 earnings calls for US refiners and upstream producers were almost unanimously...
Entergy's 845-MW Palisades plant in Covert, Michigan, shut permanently May 20, more than a week...
Spot natural gas prices across the desert southwest could be in for an early summer rally in late...
CS Brazil H1 May sugar production expected to drop 30% on year: survey
Entergy's Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan shuts permanently
Global agriculture markets jittery on worsening food inflation outlook
Sugar's share of H1 May cane crush expected at 40.9%: analysts
H1 May anhydrous ethanol output seen down 20.7% on year: survey
Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 1,67 million mt in the first half of May, a decrease of 30.1% on the year, an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of 11 analysts showed May 20.
Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.
Of the analysts surveyed, the cane crush estimate ranged from 33.3 million mt to 38.5 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 35.6 million mt, a 14.1% drop on the year.
Weather in the Center-South was favorable for crushing during H1 May, with less than one day expected lost to rain and about 235-245 mills active as of May 16.
"The Center-South harvest is picking up pace, but still delayed when compared to last year," according to Platts Analytics. "Moreover, mills should divert more cane to ethanol production than the same period last year because ethanol has been more profitable than sugar since the start of the season."
The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 40.9%, down from 46.0% a year earlier. Brazilian producers were expected to take advantage of the recent high price of ethanol during the early stages of the harvest, but long-term expectations are for mills to maximize their sugar production during the second half of the harvest.
Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent was at 20.27 cents/lb on May 19, according to S&P Global data. The July NY11 sugar futures contract settled May 19 at 19.77 cents/lb, a 0.50 cents/lb discount to the hydrous ethanol price expressed in raw sugar equivalent.
Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 122.3 kg/mt, a decrease of 7% on the year.
Total ethanol output from sugar cane is expected to be 1.58 billion liters, down 14.2% on the year.
Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 1.09 billion liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 11.7% on the year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H1 May was expected to be 478 million liters, 20.7% lower on the year, according to the survey.
Industry association UNICA is expected to release its official production figures early next week.
CS Brazil Cane Production Data – H1 May 2022 (as of May 16) Category Unit Survey Platts UNICA (2021-22) Y-O-Y** var. Vol. y-o-y** Cane crush (million mt) 35.59 35.9 41.43 -14.10% -5.84 ATR (kg/mt cane) 122.27 122 131.45 -7.00% -9.18 Sugar output (thousand mt) 1,669 1,653 2,387 -30.10% -718.5 Ethanol total (million ltr) 1,579 1,729 1,840 * -14.20% -260.7 Hydrous output (million ltr) 1,092 1,229 1,237 * -11.70% -145 Anhydrous output (million ltr) 478 500 603 * -20.70% -125 Sugar Mix (%) 40.91 39.5 45.99 -11.00% -5.08 Ethanol Mix (%) 59.09 60.5 54.01 9.40% 5.08 *corn ethanol included Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results, UNICA. **Year-on-year change compares S&P Global Platts Survey against UNICA's figures for 2021-22
To continue reading you must login or register with us.
It’s free and easy to do. Please use the button below and we will bring you back here when complete.